There is now a 60 percent chance that a tropical depression forms near the United States this Independence Day weekend, but those along the Gulf Coast can breathe easier for now. The National Hurricane Center has shifted where forecasters think the disturbance will form from the Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic, off the Southeast coast.

Will it rain today? Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30, 2025, with most active months between August and October for Florida weather.

Florida is in for a wet weekend as the chances that a tropical system will develop continue to climb. The National Hurricane Center raised the likelihood of development for a potential system near the northeast coast of Florida to 60% in the next seven days - up from 40% the day before - and for the first time gave the system a 20% chance of strengthening in the next day or two.